More Deadly Strikes
A prelude to peace?
They struck western Ukraine. Ternopil to be exact. East of Lviv, near the Polish border. The intensity of the attack was enough for Poland to scramble its F-16s. The initial losses were great: 26 killed, including 3 children, 93 injured with 18 children hospitalized. This Russian attack, like the rest, serve one purpose - to terrorize and demoralize.
Residential apartment blocks and civilian infrastructure, again, were the primary targets. No military targets to speak of. Ukrainian civil defense officials urged the population to stay indoors due to toxic smoke and dust. It prompts one to ask if the Russians are firing chemical munitions. If they did, let’s not pretend it is a one-off. They have already used them on the battlefield in Ukraine. They used them in Syria.
From Ukraine, Viktor Kravchuk writes more of what Ternopil means to him personally.
Reshaping The Battlefield -
While the Russians have stepped up their attacks on civilian targets, the Ukrainian military have replied with deep strikes into Russia, targeting military installations, depots, rail heads, bridges in addition to military aircraft, drones and more, over the past several weeks and months. The Russian military have literally used their entire stockpile of reserve military equipment dating back to World War II. What remains is scrap, equipment that cannot be repaired or modified to be made usable.
The Russian military-industrial complex is also lagging. With the lack of advanced technology in their missiles and drones, they have resorted to looting Ukrainian homes for kitchen appliances, large and small, to integrate into their weapon systems. They’ve been doing this since Day One of the war. It explains their importation and use of the Iranian-made Shahed drones and North Korean ammunition stocks. Those munitions from North Korea, most have been found to be duds.
Losing more than 1,000 men a day, those are losses no military is able to sustain, long term or short term. The Russians have turned to the North Koreans, again, to provide manpower. Like their own soldiers, the North Korean soldiers have been found to be ill-trained and ill-supplied, but a willingness to fight to the death.
On our worst days in Vietnam, we lost around 150-200 men a day. But, we turned around those numbers. We did it by changing our counterinsurgency tactics, fighting smarter and with greater lethality. Not by terrorizing the civilian populace. Let’s also admit the Communist North Vietnamese government used their own civilian population as human shields, just as the Russians are doing today. Just as the Taliban did in Afghanistan. Just as AQ did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Just as Saddam’s army and former regime elements (FRE) did in Iraq.
Going Forward
The Russian economy is in freefall. They are unable to sustain a wartime economy. The sanctions have had their bite. They expected the sanctions to be uneven. There were enough countries addicted to affordable Russian crude and refined products (gasoline, diesel and LNG). When the Russians increased their prices, those buyers reconsidered and chose to go elsewhere.
Worst yet, the money budgeted to overhaul their utility networks was diverted to the military and now their own civilian population are living in iced over apartments. No heat, broken water lines, limited electricity. While they hoped to impose these conditions on Ukraine, the Russians are living through them instead. Add the rampant government corruption, supposed officials are fighting over the scraps of the economic skeleton.
If the economic forecasts hold, the Russians are expected to run out of money next year, by Summer 2026.
And, this is where the Trump Administration comes to the rescue.
The so-called, deeply flawed 28-point peace plan developed by the Trump admin and Russia comes into play. The peace plan is simply a rehash of Russian demands on Ukraine. Among the demands:
freezing the frontlines and ceding all territory behind Russian lines to Russia
reducing the size of the Ukrainian military to less than half
surrender of all advanced weaponry
no NATO, no EU membership
installation of a pro-Russia government
What does Russia give up? Not much of anything. In other words, Ukraine capitulates. Zelenskyy is extradited to Russia.
No Peace -
If this peace plan appears to be vaguely familiar, it should be. It is a one-sided plan that favors the Russians. Every proposal put forth by the admin favors Russia. The demands outlined by Putin have not changed since 2022. Those who ‘understand’ say they are reasonable asks by Putin and Russia. The eastward expansion of NATO and EU proves Russia’s point of an existential threat to the Russian way.
The Trump admin is giving Ukraine until Thursday, Nov 27 to accept the deal. The vice-president, JD Vance, said the plan is the best option to end the war. There aren’t any better avenues. Translation: give peace a chance. If it is giving peace a chance, it is on who’s terms. Gen Mark Hertling, on Friday, called the plan one-sided. It’s all advantage, Russia. Ukraine gains nothing except Russian domination.
The admin did not need to wait long for Ukraine’s answer. President Zelenskyy said no deal. Not long afterward, Russia said no also.